Ale które konkretnie wykresy (mówię o mojej lince z Nature) wg Ciebie pokazują, że lock niczego nie zmienił?
Raczej pokazują, że po wprowadzeniu lock - w krajach, które go wprowadziły - liczba dodatkowych zgonów spadła.
Natomiast interpretacja tych wykresów nie jest tak oczywista i prosta - co ładnie widać w części: Discussion.
Niestety źle wyświetla mi się tabelka (jest mała, a w powiększeniu zamazana) : Extended Data Table 4 Selected population, policy and health systems characteristics of the 21 countries included in the analysis - a wydaje mi się, że tam jest dobry materiał porównawczy.
Niemniej sedno o lockdownie jest w tym miejscu:
Although our results demonstrate that countries with timely lockdowns had smaller numbers of excess deaths in the first wave of the epidemic, lockdowns have adverse short- and long-term health, psychosocial and economic effects. They might become needed, as a mechanism of last resort, as the number of cases increases, but they also require effective surveillance and agile operation, with sufficient geographical granularity to limit restrictions to as small an area as possible. Lockdowns, especially nationwide ones, can be avoided or be less stringent if countries can put in place comprehensive (and, in the extreme, universal) and effective testing and contact tracing systems; provide information to individuals and local public health bodies in a timely manner; create a sense of trust and responsibility; and put in place economic and social support that helps to increase participation in testing, contact tracing and adherence to isolation advice. In addition to controlling transmission, there is a need for integrated care pathways at the community and facility level that manage both milder COVID-19 cases and allow other acute and chronic conditions to be rapidly and appropriately triaged and cared for in community facilities as well as in health and long-term care facilities. For some countries, this might involve a re-allocation and re-direction of care resources and, for others, where there has been chronic underinvestment in health and social care, the more challenging task of rebuilding public health and health and social care systems that serve their entire population41.
Z działu Discussion.
Co do obecnego zamknięcia w Polsce: jak można zakazać komuś pracować i równocześnie nie zaproponować pomocy - jak siłownie mają utrzymać pracowników? Zasoby? Opłacić faktury? Zostali z ręką w nocniku z dnia na dzień.
Chaos w przepisach dotyczących kwarantanny: współpracuję od lat z firmą budowlaną, która na rynku jest od 26 lat - jeden test zawiesił ją na włosku: test żony jednego pracownika - potem jego. Oni zamknięci, a 11 osób czeka - zdolnych do pracy - na decyzję czy byli za bardzo kontaktowi. Rozpoczęte 3 inwestycje - nie będą zapłacone, kolejne umówione przepadną, a dopiero odrabiają wiosnę. Wypłaty dla pracowników? Faktury? Przyszłość firmy?
Mogłabym mnożyć takie historie - bo na Śląsku nie śmierć zbiera żniwo, a coraz ciaśniejszy system kwarantanny. To też cichy lockdown.
Ja jednak ponownie i uparcie chciałabym zwrócić uwagę na ten akapit:
In absolute terms, the total mortality toll of the pandemic was overwhelmingly in those aged 65 years and older, who experienced 94% of all excess deaths. In relative terms, older people were also affected more, with mortality in these ages being ~40% higher than it would have been in the absence of the pandemic in Spain and England and Wales and ~30% higher in Belgium, Scotland and Italy. The largest effect on those younger than 65 years was in England and Wales—26% (20–32%) for males and 22% (17–28%) for females—followed by Scotland, Spain, Sweden and Italy. In men and women in New Zealand and men in Denmark and Slovakia, there might have been a slight decline in deaths in men younger than 65 years as a result of the pandemic, with posterior probabilities of the observed declines being true declines above 90%. In these ages, injuries are an important cause of death, especially for men. For example, in men younger than 65 years in New Zealand, Denmark and Slovakia, injuries account for 22%, 11% and 15% of all deaths, respectively4.
I dodać do tego zdanie linkowane powyżej:
In many countries, deaths in care homes account for 30 to 60% of all additional deaths. In Canada and some US states, care homes account for up to 80% of all “Covid19-related” deaths. In Sweden, deaths in nursing homes plus nursing apartments account for 75% of all deaths.
Co się dzieje w domach opieki?
Dlaczego nie jest nagłośniony stan w jakim osoby z DPS-ów trafiają do szpitali? I nie chodzi o COVID.